Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 8086 · MAF → IAD
departs 6:21 AM CT · arrives 10:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MAF that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MAF are usually not late
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.91 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.