Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 865 · DEN → ABQ
departs 8:31 AM MT · arrives 9:56 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Sun 10/18 35%
Mon 10/19 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into ABQ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.31 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.