Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1721
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
Y4 1721 · LAX → GDL
departs 12:52 AM PT · arrives 5:08 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 21%
Sat 10/17 24%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Y4's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.