Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
Y4 7855 · LAX → AGU
departs 10:39 AM PT · arrives 2:54 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13 18%
Thu 10/15
Sat 10/17 25%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AGU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AGU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from LAX are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
AGU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AGU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.