Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 3981 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

YV 3981 · IAD → SAV

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAV?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SAV that day

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.15 in

SAV (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3981 · IAD → SAV

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAV?