Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6305 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

YV 6305 · SDF → IAD

departs 6:06 AM ET · arrives 7:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SDF that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ YV's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SDF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.39 in

IAD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6305 · SDF → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?