Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 3405 · EWR → SDF
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 5:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/13 12%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 32%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.