Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 3422 · SDF → ORD
departs 7:15 AM ET · arrives 7:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 15%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
7am departures from SDF are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.38 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.