Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 3712 · EWR → MSN
departs 8:46 AM ET · arrives 10:23 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MSN that day
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.