Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4344
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4344 · ORD → MEM
departs 8:05 AM CT · arrives 9:59 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.