Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4389
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4389 · TUL → LGA
departs 6:01 AM CT · arrives 10:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 5%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 6%
Sun 10/18 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.0 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from TUL are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.96 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.