Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4424 · GRR → ORD
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 6:13 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 6%
Wed 10/14 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.