Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4518
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4518 · PHL → IND
departs 2:02 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 18%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IND that day
↑
2pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.