Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4759 · PHL → RDU
departs 4:06 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13 10%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 23%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.