Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4796 · PHL → IND
departs 8:41 AM ET · arrives 11:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 9%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at IND that day
↑
8am departures from PHL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
IND usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.