Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5619
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 5619 · MKE → BOS
departs 6:35 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 29%
Sun 10/18 24%
Mon 10/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from MKE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.28 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.