Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 5789 · CVG → BOS
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Tue 10/13 58%
Wed 10/14 26%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 34%
Sat 10/17 21%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi forecast at CVG that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from CVG are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.1 mi Precip 0.24 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.