Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 5855 · DTW → GRR
departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/13 7%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.