Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1977 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 16

AA 1977 · PHL → SJU

departs 9:28 AM ET · arrives 1:33 PM AT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ SJU is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.16 in

SJU (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1977 · PHL → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?