Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 16

UA 1430 · PSP → SFO

departs 1:32 PM PT · arrives 3:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PSP (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1430 · PSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?