Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2311 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 16

UA 2311 · EWR → STL

departs 9:42 AM ET · arrives 11:23 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±10 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at STL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.21 in

STL (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2311 · EWR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?