Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 480 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 16

UA 480 · DEN → CMH

departs 9:35 AM MT · arrives 2:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at CMH that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from DEN are often late

↓ CMH usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 480 · DEN → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?