Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4879
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 16
WN 4879 · BNA → PHL
departs 10:14 AM CT · arrives 1:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16
Sat 10/17 28%
Sun 10/18 13%
Mon 10/19 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at BNA that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.