Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3700
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 16
YX 3700 · EWR → DTW
departs 8:46 AM ET · arrives 10:49 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/14 9%
Thu 10/15 11%
Fri 10/16
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 11%
Mon 10/19 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±8 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 267 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 267 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.