Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3245 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Today

AA 3245 · PHL → SAN

departs 5:58 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3245 · PHL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?