Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

DL 836 · ATL → PHX

departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 836 · ATL → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?