tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Nashville via Detroit: arrives on time 51%

  1. 12:37 ORF → 14:43 DTW
    DL 4653 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 06m · 60% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:04 DTW → 16:46 BNA
    DL 2316 · Delta · 1h 42m · 72% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 09mORF 12:37 to BNA 16:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.