tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 56%

  1. 12:37 ORF → 14:43 DTW
    DL 4653 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 06m · 60% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:18 DTW → 18:29 JFK
    DL 2934 · Delta · 2h 11m · 79% on time, 3.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.1% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 52mORF 12:37 to JFK 18:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.