tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Hebron via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 13:53 BNA → 17:39 JFK
    DL 4662 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 46m · 71% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:29 JFK → 21:05 CVG
    DL 5023 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 36m · 72% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 12mBNA 13:53 to CVG 21:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.