tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → St Louis via New York: arrives on time 27%

  1. 11:29 RDU → 13:12 LGA
    DL 4667 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 43m · 55% on time, 7.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:59 LGA → 15:50 STL
    DL 4905 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 51m · 65% on time, 7.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (7.5% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (7.9% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 21mRDU 11:29 to STL 15:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.