tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 55%

  1. 13:26 MDW → 15:44 DTW
    DL 4688 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 18m · 81% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 4h 26m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 221 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 26m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 47mMDW 13:26 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.