tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Philadelphia via Detroit: arrives on time 62%

  1. 13:26 MDW → 15:44 DTW
    DL 4688 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 18m · 81% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 DTW → 19:25 PHL
    DL 1686 · Delta · 1h 45m · 72% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 71 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 56m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 59mMDW 13:26 to PHL 19:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.