tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Newark via Detroit: arrives on time 46%

  1. 13:26 MDW → 15:44 DTW
    DL 4688 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 18m · 81% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:44 DTW → 19:30 EWR
    DL 2567 · Delta · 1h 46m · 53% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 04mMDW 13:26 to EWR 19:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.