tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Diego via Detroit: arrives on time 54%

  1. 13:26 MDW → 15:44 DTW
    DL 4688 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 18m · 81% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:35 DTW → 18:21 SAN
    DL 369 · Delta · 4h 46m · 74% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 55mMDW 13:26 to SAN 18:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.