tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Detroit: arrives on time 51%

  1. 13:26 MDW → 15:44 DTW
    DL 4688 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 18m · 81% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 DTW → 20:59 SFO
    DL 509 · Delta · 5h 04m · 55% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip9h 33mMDW 13:26 to SFO 20:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.