tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Buffalo via Detroit: arrives on time 54%

  1. 18:58 MDW → 21:16 DTW
    DL 4690 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 21m · 57% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 34m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 DTW → 23:58 BUF
    DL 978 · Delta · 1h 09m · 74% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 49 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 34m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip4h 01mMDW 18:58 to BUF 23:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.