tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Los Angeles via Minneapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 19:06 MDW → 20:51 MSP
    DL 4713 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 45m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 MSP → 23:54 LAX
    DL 2103 · Delta · 3h 55m · 75% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 48mMDW 19:06 to LAX 23:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.