tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Seattle via Minneapolis: arrives on time 58%

  1. 19:06 MDW → 20:51 MSP
    DL 4713 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 45m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:08 MSP → 23:58 SEA
    DL 505 · Delta · 3h 50m · 83% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip6h 52mMDW 19:06 to SEA 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.