tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Detroit: arrives on time 64%

  1. 07:00 MSN → 09:25 DTW
    DL 4765 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 25m · 86% on time, 6.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 DTW → 11:59 EWR
    DL 2577 · Delta · 1h 44m · 82% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (6.5% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip3h 59mMSN 07:00 to EWR 11:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.