tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 15:00 JFK → 17:11 ORD
    DL 4783 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 11m · 74% on time, 23.6% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:57 ORD → 19:38 MSP
    DL 1306 · Delta · 1h 41m · 51% on time, 7.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (23.6% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (7.2% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 38mJFK 15:00 to MSP 19:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.