tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:00 ORD → 21:40 JFK
    DL 4783 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 40m · 49% on time, 23.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 JFK → 00:38 BUF +1 day
    DL 5264 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 58m · 83% on time, 8.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (23.6% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (8.4% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 38mORD 18:00 to BUF 00:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.