tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Rochester via New York: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:00 ORD → 21:40 JFK
    DL 4783 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 40m · 49% on time, 23.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:59 JFK → 00:53 ROC +1 day
    DL 5297 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 54m · 73% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rochester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (23.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip5h 53mORD 18:00 to ROC 00:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.