tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:49 MDW → 15:33 MSP
    DL 4820 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 44m · 68% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 37m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:10 MSP → 22:09 JFK
    DL 5244 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 59m · 52% on time, 11.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 112 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 37m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (11.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip7h 20mMDW 13:49 to JFK 22:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.