tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Ana via Minneapolis: arrives on time 59%

  1. 13:49 MDW → 15:33 MSP
    DL 4820 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 44m · 68% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:28 MSP → 20:24 SNA
    DL 2107 · Delta · 3h 56m · 68% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection91%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 9% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (91%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 35mMDW 13:49 to SNA 20:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.