tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 59%

  1. 13:49 MDW → 15:33 MSP
    DL 4820 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 44m · 68% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 17m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MSP → 21:00 SFO
    DL 2809 · Delta · 4h 10m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 152 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 17m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip9h 11mMDW 13:49 to SFO 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.