tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Sacramento via Minneapolis: arrives on time 71%

  1. 13:49 MDW → 15:33 MSP
    DL 4820 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 44m · 68% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 12m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:45 MSP → 20:37 SMF
    DL 574 · Delta · 3h 52m · 79% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 147 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 12m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip8h 48mMDW 13:49 to SMF 20:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.