tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Washington via New York: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:55 SDF → 20:20 LGA
    DL 4852 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 25m · 62% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 LGA → 22:55 DCA
    DL 1825 · Delta · 1h 30m · 47% on time, 6.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (6.2% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 00mSDF 17:55 to DCA 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.