tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Springfield → Denver via Atlanta: arrives on time 35%

  1. 15:30 SGF → 18:25 ATL
    DL 4854 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 56m · 52% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 ATL → 20:44 DEN
    DL 746 · Delta · 3h 19m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Springfield). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 14mSGF 15:30 to DEN 20:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.