tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Springfield → Las Vegas via Atlanta: arrives on time 49%

  1. 15:30 SGF → 18:25 ATL
    DL 4854 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 56m · 52% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 ATL → 21:10 LAS
    DL 955 · Delta · 4h 15m · 68% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 40mSGF 15:30 to LAS 21:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.