tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Philadelphia via Detroit: arrives on time 59%

  1. 17:24 XNA → 20:36 DTW
    DL 4895 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 13m · 76% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 DTW → 23:17 PHL
    DL 2402 · Delta · 1h 42m · 81% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip4h 53mXNA 17:24 to PHL 23:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.